Finance academics who documented short-term return reversals
Narasimhan Jegadeesh & Bruce N. Lehmann
Narasimhan Jegadeesh, Dean's Distinguished Chair of Finance at Emory University's Goizueta Business School (PhD, Columbia), showed one-month return reversals in the Journal of Finance in 1990. Bruce N. Lehmann (PhD, University of Chicago, 1983), professor of economics and finance at UC San Diego until his death in 2018, showed weekly reversals in the Quarterly Journal of Economics the same year.
What they argue
- Short-horizon returns reverse: last week's (Lehmann) or last month's (Jegadeesh) losers tend to beat last period's winners in the next period.
- Lehmann found that buying last week's losers and selling last week's winners made money in each of 49 six-month periods from 1962 to 1986, which he read as an inefficiency in supplying liquidity around large price moves.
Sources
Summaries are Be The Puck's paraphrase of public material. Be The Puck has no affiliation with the people listed.
Books and papers
- Jegadeesh: Evidence of Predictable Behavior of Security Returns, Journal of Finance 45(3): 881-898 (1990)
- Lehmann: Fads, Martingales, and Market Efficiency, Quarterly Journal of Economics 105(1): 1-28 (1990)
Short-term reversal (last month's laggard)
Rule and full recordMean reversion · month-end
Last month's laggards tend to bounce the next month. Hold the stock for the month after one in which it trailed SPY.
Best risk-adjusted results against buy and hold: