Volume & money flow · daily rule · Sectors
Money Flow Index on Technology Select Sector ETF
XLK with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of $10,000 since 2005
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding XLK over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2005 | Hold, since 2005 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +4.7% | +15.9% | +13.7% | +22.0% |
| Total return | +169% | +2,353% | +89% | +169% |
| Worst drawdown | −51.5% | −53.0% | −28.5% | −33.6% |
| Volatility | 16.8% | 22.6% | 20.6% | 25.9% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.25 | 0.69 | 0.54 | 0.75 |
| Time invested | 33% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 1.6 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 17 of 34 closed calls (50%). In calls averaged +5.6%; out calls saw XLK move +17.1% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | XLK moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | OUT | $201.39 | now | −2.5% | open |
| Jul 30, 2026 | IN | $175.53 | Oct 7, 2026 | +14.7% | ✓ right |
| Apr 28, 2026 | OUT | $157.48 | Jul 30, 2026 | +11.5% | ✕ wrong |
| Nov 19, 2025 | IN | $139.77 | Apr 28, 2026 | +12.7% | ✓ right |
| Jun 17, 2025 | OUT | $119.69 | Nov 19, 2025 | +16.8% | ✕ wrong |
| Mar 12, 2025 | IN | $104.81 | Jun 17, 2025 | +14.2% | ✓ right |
| Dec 4, 2023 | OUT | $89.95 | Mar 12, 2025 | +16.5% | ✕ wrong |
| Jan 28, 2022 | IN | $76.28 | Dec 4, 2023 | +17.9% | ✓ right |
| May 12, 2020 | OUT | $44.44 | Jan 28, 2022 | +71.6% | ✕ wrong |
| Mar 2, 2020 | IN | $44.23 | May 12, 2020 | +0.5% | ✓ right |
| Jan 28, 2019 | OUT | $30.38 | Mar 2, 2020 | +45.6% | ✕ wrong |
| Dec 26, 2018 | IN | $28.53 | Jan 28, 2019 | +6.5% | ✓ right |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 35 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.