Volume & money flow · daily rule · Media & telecom
Money Flow Index on Telus
T with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2005
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding T over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2005 | Hold, since 2005 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +0.7% | +5.9% | −3.9% | −10.8% |
| Total return | +15% | +248% | −18% | −43% |
| Worst drawdown | −46.4% | −56.7% | −28.5% | −56.7% |
| Volatility | 14.7% | 20.5% | 14.7% | 18.1% |
| Sharpe ratio | −0.00 | 0.30 | −0.45 | −0.74 |
| Time invested | 42% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 1.5 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 20 of 33 closed calls (61%). In calls averaged +1.9%; out calls saw T move +10.1% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | T moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 7, 2026 | IN | C$14.58 | now | −22.1% | open |
| Jan 20, 2026 | OUT | C$17.27 | Jul 7, 2026 | −15.6% | ✓ right |
| Dec 4, 2025 | IN | C$17.13 | Jan 20, 2026 | +0.8% | ✓ right |
| May 1, 2025 | OUT | C$18.67 | Dec 4, 2025 | −8.3% | ✓ right |
| Oct 10, 2024 | IN | C$18.85 | May 1, 2025 | −1.0% | ✕ wrong |
| May 9, 2024 | OUT | C$18.49 | Oct 10, 2024 | +2.0% | ✕ wrong |
| Jun 5, 2023 | IN | C$19.97 | May 9, 2024 | −7.4% | ✕ wrong |
| Apr 25, 2023 | OUT | C$22.14 | Jun 5, 2023 | −9.8% | ✓ right |
| Mar 14, 2023 | IN | C$20.77 | Apr 25, 2023 | +6.6% | ✓ right |
| Jan 25, 2023 | OUT | C$21.83 | Mar 14, 2023 | −4.9% | ✓ right |
| May 3, 2022 | IN | C$23.69 | Jan 25, 2023 | −7.8% | ✕ wrong |
| Dec 24, 2021 | OUT | C$21.64 | May 3, 2022 | +9.5% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 34 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.