Volume & money flow · daily rule · Energy & power
Money Flow Index on Strathcona Resources
SCR with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2010
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding SCR over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2010 | Hold, since 2010 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | −0.2% | +4.0% | +12.3% | +9.3% |
| Total return | −4% | +91% | +78% | +56% |
| Worst drawdown | −90.4% | −95.2% | −35.1% | −78.1% |
| Volatility | 57.6% | 91.1% | 26.9% | 48.4% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.25 | 0.47 | 0.42 | 0.35 |
| Time invested | 41% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 3.8 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 31 of 62 closed calls (50%). In calls averaged +5.8%; out calls saw SCR move +12.8% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | SCR moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2026 | OUT | C$28.28 | now | +46.2% | open |
| Dec 23, 2025 | IN | C$28.41 | Feb 26, 2026 | −0.4% | ✕ wrong |
| May 20, 2025 | OUT | C$20.35 | Dec 23, 2025 | +39.6% | ✕ wrong |
| Apr 22, 2025 | IN | C$18.38 | May 20, 2025 | +10.7% | ✓ right |
| Mar 25, 2025 | OUT | C$20.95 | Apr 22, 2025 | −12.3% | ✓ right |
| Sep 9, 2024 | IN | C$19.44 | Mar 25, 2025 | +7.8% | ✓ right |
| Jan 23, 2024 | OUT | C$16.64 | Sep 9, 2024 | +16.8% | ✕ wrong |
| Oct 27, 2023 | IN | C$18.94 | Jan 23, 2024 | −12.2% | ✕ wrong |
| Sep 7, 2023 | OUT | C$23.67 | Oct 27, 2023 | −20.0% | ✓ right |
| May 1, 2023 | IN | C$25.26 | Sep 7, 2023 | −6.3% | ✕ wrong |
| Jan 20, 2022 | OUT | C$44.69 | May 1, 2023 | −43.5% | ✓ right |
| Oct 20, 2021 | IN | C$27.66 | Jan 20, 2022 | +61.6% | ✓ right |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 63 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.