Volume & money flow · daily rule · Industrials & rentals
Money Flow Index on Ryder System
R with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of $10,000 since 2005
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding R over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2005 | Hold, since 2005 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +3.5% | +10.5% | +12.4% | +27.1% |
| Total return | +113% | +783% | +79% | +230% |
| Worst drawdown | −61.5% | −74.0% | −25.3% | −30.0% |
| Volatility | 22.1% | 36.5% | 25.0% | 32.6% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.19 | 0.41 | 0.44 | 0.78 |
| Time invested | 27% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 1.5 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 16 of 33 closed calls (48%). In calls averaged +6.2%; out calls saw R move +13.1% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | R moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 7, 2026 | IN | $264.86 | now | −9.6% | open |
| Feb 10, 2026 | OUT | $209.60 | Jul 7, 2026 | +26.4% | ✕ wrong |
| Dec 24, 2024 | IN | $152.97 | Feb 10, 2026 | +37.0% | ✓ right |
| Jan 30, 2023 | OUT | $84.62 | Dec 24, 2024 | +80.8% | ✕ wrong |
| Jan 31, 2022 | IN | $65.36 | Jan 30, 2023 | +29.5% | ✓ right |
| Oct 29, 2019 | OUT | $42.29 | Jan 31, 2022 | +54.6% | ✕ wrong |
| Aug 19, 2019 | IN | $39.04 | Oct 29, 2019 | +8.3% | ✓ right |
| Jan 22, 2019 | OUT | $43.18 | Aug 19, 2019 | −9.6% | ✓ right |
| Oct 15, 2018 | IN | $52.53 | Jan 22, 2019 | −17.8% | ✕ wrong |
| Jun 8, 2017 | OUT | $49.16 | Oct 15, 2018 | +6.9% | ✕ wrong |
| Jan 3, 2017 | IN | $56.18 | Jun 8, 2017 | −12.5% | ✕ wrong |
| Apr 28, 2016 | OUT | $51.71 | Jan 3, 2017 | +8.6% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 34 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.