Volume & money flow · daily rule · Consumer & retail
Money Flow Index on PDD Holdings
PDD with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of $10,000 since 2018
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding PDD over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2018 | Hold, since 2018 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +1.2% | +19.7% | −8.2% | −3.4% |
| Total return | +11% | +331% | −35% | −16% |
| Worst drawdown | −84.3% | −87.4% | −74.6% | −74.6% |
| Volatility | 50.1% | 68.1% | 48.7% | 66.0% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.21 | 0.56 | −0.03 | 0.21 |
| Time invested | 45% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 2.1 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 12 of 17 closed calls (71%). In calls averaged +12.9%; out calls saw PDD move +33.4% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | PDD moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 18, 2025 | IN | $105.79 | now | −22.5% | open |
| Jul 24, 2025 | OUT | $118.21 | Dec 18, 2025 | −10.5% | ✓ right |
| Apr 14, 2025 | IN | $94.78 | Jul 24, 2025 | +24.7% | ✓ right |
| Feb 3, 2025 | OUT | $105.24 | Apr 14, 2025 | −9.9% | ✓ right |
| Oct 25, 2024 | IN | $122.47 | Feb 3, 2025 | −14.1% | ✕ wrong |
| Aug 20, 2024 | OUT | $144.22 | Oct 25, 2024 | −15.1% | ✓ right |
| Jul 11, 2024 | IN | $139.24 | Aug 20, 2024 | +3.6% | ✓ right |
| May 21, 2024 | OUT | $145.45 | Jul 11, 2024 | −4.3% | ✓ right |
| Mar 11, 2024 | IN | $111.89 | May 21, 2024 | +30.0% | ✓ right |
| Jun 3, 2022 | OUT | $50.90 | Mar 11, 2024 | +119.8% | ✕ wrong |
| Mar 10, 2021 | IN | $148.14 | Jun 3, 2022 | −65.6% | ✕ wrong |
| Nov 16, 2020 | OUT | $142.03 | Mar 10, 2021 | +4.3% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 18 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.