Volume & money flow · daily rule · Consumer & retail
Money Flow Index on Premium Brands
PBH with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2008
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding PBH over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2008 | Hold, since 2008 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +4.6% | +15.8% | +6.0% | −8.6% |
| Total return | +126% | +1,320% | +33% | −36% |
| Worst drawdown | −34.1% | −45.4% | −26.5% | −41.4% |
| Volatility | 18.2% | 24.7% | 19.2% | 24.0% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.26 | 0.66 | 0.20 | −0.41 |
| Time invested | 44% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 2.4 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 25 of 43 closed calls (58%). In calls averaged +4.5%; out calls saw PBH move +25.9% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | PBH moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14, 2026 | IN | C$76.58 | now | −6.7% | open |
| Jul 17, 2026 | OUT | C$88.86 | Sep 14, 2026 | −13.8% | ✓ right |
| Mar 16, 2026 | IN | C$92.99 | Jul 17, 2026 | −4.4% | ✕ wrong |
| Feb 24, 2026 | OUT | C$101.98 | Mar 16, 2026 | −8.8% | ✓ right |
| Nov 18, 2025 | IN | C$86.55 | Feb 24, 2026 | +17.8% | ✓ right |
| Aug 26, 2025 | OUT | C$90.02 | Nov 18, 2025 | −3.9% | ✓ right |
| Nov 11, 2024 | IN | C$71.56 | Aug 26, 2025 | +25.8% | ✓ right |
| Oct 4, 2024 | OUT | C$87.32 | Nov 11, 2024 | −18.1% | ✓ right |
| Oct 23, 2023 | IN | C$82.11 | Oct 4, 2024 | +6.4% | ✓ right |
| Jan 25, 2023 | OUT | C$77.71 | Oct 23, 2023 | +5.7% | ✕ wrong |
| Oct 4, 2022 | IN | C$74.18 | Jan 25, 2023 | +4.8% | ✓ right |
| Jul 14, 2022 | OUT | C$82.07 | Oct 4, 2022 | −9.6% | ✓ right |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 44 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.