Volume & money flow · daily rule · Metals & mining
Money Flow Index on Osisko Gold Royalties
OR with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2015
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding OR over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2015 | Hold, since 2015 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +5.9% | +10.9% | +11.5% | +28.2% |
| Total return | +97% | +235% | +72% | +245% |
| Worst drawdown | −37.7% | −59.0% | −32.4% | −39.4% |
| Volatility | 16.8% | 37.1% | 17.4% | 34.7% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.30 | 0.41 | 0.49 | 0.78 |
| Time invested | 26% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 2.0 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 14 of 24 closed calls (58%). In calls averaged +5.1%; out calls saw OR move +9.1% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | OR moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 31, 2026 | OUT | C$51.09 | now | −4.0% | open |
| Mar 25, 2026 | IN | C$47.75 | Aug 31, 2026 | +7.0% | ✓ right |
| Jan 14, 2026 | OUT | C$56.30 | Mar 25, 2026 | −15.2% | ✓ right |
| Nov 10, 2025 | IN | C$44.97 | Jan 14, 2026 | +25.2% | ✓ right |
| Jul 19, 2024 | OUT | C$24.37 | Nov 10, 2025 | +84.5% | ✕ wrong |
| Jun 27, 2024 | IN | C$20.84 | Jul 19, 2024 | +16.9% | ✓ right |
| Oct 26, 2023 | OUT | C$16.52 | Jun 27, 2024 | +26.1% | ✕ wrong |
| Jul 11, 2023 | IN | C$18.39 | Oct 26, 2023 | −10.2% | ✕ wrong |
| Feb 18, 2022 | OUT | C$14.92 | Jul 11, 2023 | +23.2% | ✕ wrong |
| Dec 8, 2021 | IN | C$14.08 | Feb 18, 2022 | +6.0% | ✓ right |
| Apr 22, 2021 | OUT | C$14.60 | Dec 8, 2021 | −3.5% | ✓ right |
| Feb 1, 2021 | IN | C$14.09 | Apr 22, 2021 | +3.6% | ✓ right |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 25 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.