Volume & money flow · daily rule · Metals & mining
Money Flow Index on OceanaGold
OGC with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2007
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding OGC over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2007 | Hold, since 2007 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +3.5% | +9.1% | +9.3% | +39.9% |
| Total return | +90% | +414% | +56% | +432% |
| Worst drawdown | −81.8% | −95.6% | −33.7% | −46.9% |
| Volatility | 43.0% | 64.1% | 19.2% | 50.2% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.26 | 0.43 | 0.36 | 0.84 |
| Time invested | 35% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 2.2 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 24 of 42 closed calls (57%). In calls averaged +8.2%; out calls saw OGC move +28.7% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | OGC moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 13, 2026 | OUT | C$39.45 | now | −8.1% | open |
| Mar 23, 2026 | IN | C$42.22 | Aug 13, 2026 | −6.6% | ✕ wrong |
| Mar 16, 2022 | OUT | C$7.66 | Mar 23, 2026 | +451.3% | ✕ wrong |
| Dec 9, 2021 | IN | C$6.30 | Mar 16, 2022 | +21.6% | ✓ right |
| Nov 16, 2021 | OUT | C$7.89 | Dec 9, 2021 | −20.1% | ✓ right |
| Jul 8, 2021 | IN | C$6.82 | Nov 16, 2021 | +15.7% | ✓ right |
| Dec 18, 2020 | OUT | C$6.91 | Jul 8, 2021 | −1.3% | ✓ right |
| Aug 26, 2020 | IN | C$9.68 | Dec 18, 2020 | −28.7% | ✕ wrong |
| May 21, 2020 | OUT | C$8.81 | Aug 26, 2020 | +9.8% | ✕ wrong |
| Jul 12, 2019 | IN | C$9.83 | May 21, 2020 | −10.3% | ✕ wrong |
| Jan 7, 2019 | OUT | C$13.43 | Jul 12, 2019 | −26.8% | ✓ right |
| Sep 18, 2018 | IN | C$10.63 | Jan 7, 2019 | +26.3% | ✓ right |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 43 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.