Volume & money flow · daily rule · Healthcare
Money Flow Index on NeuroPace
NPCE with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of $10,000 since 2021
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding NPCE over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2021 | Hold, since 2021 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | −2.3% | −8.9% | +4.9% | −4.7% |
| Total return | −12% | −39% | +27% | −21% |
| Worst drawdown | −88.8% | −94.9% | −84.6% | −92.6% |
| Volatility | 59.0% | 81.6% | 60.3% | 83.0% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.20 | 0.25 | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| Time invested | 44% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 3.3 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 11 of 18 closed calls (61%). In calls averaged +6.2%; out calls saw NPCE move −0.4% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | NPCE moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2025 | OUT | $9.94 | now | +27.6% | open |
| Jun 30, 2025 | IN | $11.14 | Sep 19, 2025 | −10.8% | ✕ wrong |
| May 19, 2025 | OUT | $17.00 | Jun 30, 2025 | −34.5% | ✓ right |
| Mar 19, 2025 | IN | $11.75 | May 19, 2025 | +44.7% | ✓ right |
| Nov 11, 2024 | OUT | $7.28 | Mar 19, 2025 | +61.4% | ✕ wrong |
| Aug 15, 2024 | IN | $7.09 | Nov 11, 2024 | +2.6% | ✓ right |
| Jul 19, 2024 | OUT | $7.96 | Aug 15, 2024 | −10.9% | ✓ right |
| Mar 12, 2024 | IN | $13.67 | Jul 19, 2024 | −41.8% | ✕ wrong |
| Jan 23, 2024 | OUT | $14.18 | Mar 12, 2024 | −3.6% | ✓ right |
| Dec 15, 2023 | IN | $9.06 | Jan 23, 2024 | +56.5% | ✓ right |
| Sep 11, 2023 | OUT | $7.21 | Dec 15, 2023 | +25.7% | ✕ wrong |
| Jun 14, 2023 | IN | $4.20 | Sep 11, 2023 | +71.7% | ✓ right |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 19 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.