Volume & money flow · daily rule · Big tech
Money Flow Index on Meta Platforms
META with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of $10,000 since 2012
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding META over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2012 | Hold, since 2012 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +2.5% | +26.3% | −8.1% | +19.0% |
| Total return | +43% | +2,709% | −34% | +137% |
| Worst drawdown | −65.8% | −76.7% | −62.0% | −74.4% |
| Volatility | 23.7% | 39.6% | 30.6% | 45.3% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.15 | 0.74 | −0.24 | 0.53 |
| Time invested | 27% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 1.3 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 8 of 18 closed calls (44%). In calls averaged +5.9%; out calls saw META move +71.6% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | META moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | OUT | $665.23 | now | +14.6% | open |
| Jul 31, 2026 | IN | $556.27 | Sep 18, 2026 | +19.6% | ✓ right |
| Apr 21, 2026 | OUT | $667.69 | Jul 31, 2026 | −16.7% | ✓ right |
| Oct 7, 2025 | IN | $710.67 | Apr 21, 2026 | −6.0% | ✕ wrong |
| May 15, 2025 | OUT | $640.78 | Oct 7, 2025 | +10.9% | ✕ wrong |
| Mar 11, 2025 | IN | $602.26 | May 15, 2025 | +6.4% | ✓ right |
| Nov 25, 2022 | OUT | $110.35 | Mar 11, 2025 | +445.8% | ✕ wrong |
| Feb 9, 2022 | IN | $229.80 | Nov 25, 2022 | −52.0% | ✕ wrong |
| Jan 16, 2019 | OUT | $146.14 | Feb 9, 2022 | +57.2% | ✕ wrong |
| Sep 19, 2018 | IN | $161.51 | Jan 16, 2019 | −9.5% | ✕ wrong |
| Jan 17, 2017 | OUT | $126.66 | Sep 19, 2018 | +27.5% | ✕ wrong |
| Nov 15, 2016 | IN | $116.09 | Jan 17, 2017 | +9.1% | ✓ right |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 19 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.