Volume & money flow · daily rule · Energy & power
Money Flow Index on Kelt Exploration
KEL with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2013
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding KEL over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2013 | Hold, since 2013 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | −11.3% | +4.0% | +13.2% | +19.2% |
| Total return | −80% | +69% | +85% | +140% |
| Worst drawdown | −94.6% | −94.8% | −22.5% | −46.1% |
| Volatility | 34.0% | 51.4% | 22.3% | 40.3% |
| Sharpe ratio | −0.23 | 0.30 | 0.50 | 0.54 |
| Time invested | 32% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 2.2 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 17 of 30 closed calls (57%). In calls averaged −6.0%; out calls saw KEL move +30.9% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | KEL moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2025 | OUT | C$7.70 | now | +45.6% | open |
| Aug 22, 2025 | IN | C$6.96 | Nov 13, 2025 | +10.6% | ✓ right |
| Jan 14, 2025 | OUT | C$7.26 | Aug 22, 2025 | −4.1% | ✓ right |
| Jul 25, 2024 | IN | C$6.01 | Jan 14, 2025 | +20.8% | ✓ right |
| Jan 2, 2024 | OUT | C$5.66 | Jul 25, 2024 | +6.2% | ✕ wrong |
| Dec 14, 2023 | IN | C$5.81 | Jan 2, 2024 | −2.6% | ✕ wrong |
| May 26, 2023 | OUT | C$5.44 | Dec 14, 2023 | +6.8% | ✕ wrong |
| Nov 29, 2022 | IN | C$5.37 | May 26, 2023 | +1.3% | ✓ right |
| Nov 8, 2022 | OUT | C$6.24 | Nov 29, 2022 | −13.9% | ✓ right |
| Oct 3, 2022 | IN | C$5.37 | Nov 8, 2022 | +16.2% | ✓ right |
| Aug 26, 2022 | OUT | C$6.63 | Oct 3, 2022 | −19.0% | ✓ right |
| Jun 29, 2022 | IN | C$6.18 | Aug 26, 2022 | +7.3% | ✓ right |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 31 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.