Volume & money flow · daily rule · Consumer & retail
Money Flow Index on Keurig Dr Pepper
KDP with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of $10,000 since 2008
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding KDP over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2008 | Hold, since 2008 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +3.1% | +14.7% | +6.0% | +0.8% |
| Total return | +74% | +1,145% | +34% | +4% |
| Worst drawdown | −55.1% | −55.1% | −27.7% | −31.2% |
| Volatility | 17.5% | 25.1% | 17.1% | 22.0% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.18 | 0.62 | 0.21 | −0.03 |
| Time invested | 32% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 1.5 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 17 of 28 closed calls (61%). In calls averaged +4.3%; out calls saw KDP move +21.4% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | KDP moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 11, 2026 | OUT | $30.79 | now | +6.1% | open |
| Jan 7, 2026 | IN | $26.63 | Jun 11, 2026 | +15.6% | ✓ right |
| Aug 25, 2025 | OUT | $29.87 | Jan 7, 2026 | −10.9% | ✓ right |
| Jan 14, 2025 | IN | $29.50 | Aug 25, 2025 | +1.3% | ✓ right |
| Sep 5, 2024 | OUT | $34.56 | Jan 14, 2025 | −14.6% | ✓ right |
| Jul 16, 2024 | IN | $30.53 | Sep 5, 2024 | +13.2% | ✓ right |
| May 6, 2024 | OUT | $31.17 | Jul 16, 2024 | −2.1% | ✓ right |
| Sep 7, 2022 | IN | $34.09 | May 6, 2024 | −8.6% | ✕ wrong |
| Aug 11, 2022 | OUT | $34.69 | Sep 7, 2022 | −1.7% | ✓ right |
| Mar 25, 2022 | IN | $33.07 | Aug 11, 2022 | +4.9% | ✓ right |
| Apr 14, 2020 | OUT | $23.35 | Mar 25, 2022 | +41.7% | ✕ wrong |
| Dec 16, 2019 | IN | $24.26 | Apr 14, 2020 | −3.8% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 29 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.