Volume & money flow · daily rule · Metals & mining
Money Flow Index on Kinross Gold
K with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2005
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding K over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2005 | Hold, since 2005 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +3.6% | +7.4% | +1.1% | +37.4% |
| Total return | +116% | +368% | +6% | +386% |
| Worst drawdown | −58.8% | −92.4% | −53.6% | −53.6% |
| Volatility | 27.9% | 50.3% | 21.1% | 43.7% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.20 | 0.36 | −0.02 | 0.86 |
| Time invested | 28% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 1.3 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 19 of 29 closed calls (66%). In calls averaged +5.7%; out calls saw K move +31.4% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | K moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | IN | C$33.20 | now | +0.4% | open |
| Mar 31, 2023 | OUT | C$6.08 | Oct 8, 2026 | +446.2% | ✕ wrong |
| Mar 3, 2023 | IN | C$4.83 | Mar 31, 2023 | +25.7% | ✓ right |
| Oct 7, 2022 | OUT | C$4.84 | Mar 3, 2023 | 0.0% | ✓ right |
| Mar 2, 2021 | IN | C$7.39 | Oct 7, 2022 | −34.6% | ✕ wrong |
| Aug 8, 2019 | OUT | C$6.12 | Mar 2, 2021 | +20.7% | ✕ wrong |
| May 8, 2019 | IN | C$3.74 | Aug 8, 2019 | +63.5% | ✓ right |
| Dec 27, 2018 | OUT | C$3.94 | May 8, 2019 | −5.0% | ✓ right |
| Aug 24, 2018 | IN | C$3.47 | Dec 27, 2018 | +13.4% | ✓ right |
| Apr 19, 2017 | OUT | C$4.49 | Aug 24, 2018 | −22.6% | ✓ right |
| Mar 20, 2017 | IN | C$4.13 | Apr 19, 2017 | +8.7% | ✓ right |
| Dec 14, 2015 | OUT | C$2.32 | Mar 20, 2017 | +78.3% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 30 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.