Volume & money flow · daily rule · Metals & mining
Money Flow Index on i-80 Gold
IAU with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2021
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding IAU over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2021 | Hold, since 2021 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +60.9% | −1.4% | +67.7% | −7.7% |
| Total return | +1,211% | −8% | +1,211% | −33% |
| Worst drawdown | −32.7% | −87.9% | −32.7% | −87.9% |
| Volatility | 43.2% | 66.7% | 45.1% | 68.1% |
| Sharpe ratio | 1.23 | 0.29 | 1.28 | 0.20 |
| Time invested | 45% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 4.1 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 17 of 22 closed calls (77%). In calls averaged +30.1%; out calls saw IAU move −17.5% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | IAU moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | OUT | C$2.62 | now | −15.6% | open |
| Apr 30, 2026 | IN | C$2.05 | Aug 26, 2026 | +27.8% | ✓ right |
| Apr 10, 2026 | OUT | C$2.34 | Apr 30, 2026 | −12.4% | ✓ right |
| Mar 20, 2026 | IN | C$1.76 | Apr 10, 2026 | +33.0% | ✓ right |
| Dec 18, 2025 | OUT | C$2.04 | Mar 20, 2026 | −13.7% | ✓ right |
| Jul 11, 2025 | IN | C$0.880 | Dec 18, 2025 | +131.8% | ✓ right |
| Jun 20, 2025 | OUT | C$0.980 | Jul 11, 2025 | −10.2% | ✓ right |
| Apr 14, 2025 | IN | C$0.860 | Jun 20, 2025 | +14.0% | ✓ right |
| Feb 28, 2025 | OUT | C$1.11 | Apr 14, 2025 | −22.5% | ✓ right |
| Nov 19, 2024 | IN | C$0.770 | Feb 28, 2025 | +44.2% | ✓ right |
| Mar 15, 2024 | OUT | C$2.02 | Nov 19, 2024 | −61.9% | ✓ right |
| Oct 11, 2023 | IN | C$2.15 | Mar 15, 2024 | −6.0% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 23 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.