Volume & money flow · daily rule · Real estate
Money Flow Index on FirstService
FSV with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2015
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding FSV over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2015 | Hold, since 2015 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +1.1% | +18.3% | −5.7% | −4.0% |
| Total return | +13% | +564% | −25% | −18% |
| Worst drawdown | −42.6% | −42.8% | −42.6% | −42.6% |
| Volatility | 14.5% | 26.8% | 19.9% | 24.9% |
| Sharpe ratio | −0.00 | 0.68 | −0.39 | −0.19 |
| Time invested | 33% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 1.5 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 7 of 17 closed calls (41%). In calls averaged +1.4%; out calls saw FSV move +27.1% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | FSV moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21, 2026 | IN | C$186.30 | now | −0.1% | open |
| Jul 14, 2026 | OUT | C$203.22 | Sep 21, 2026 | −8.3% | ✓ right |
| Jan 15, 2025 | IN | C$254.15 | Jul 14, 2026 | −20.0% | ✕ wrong |
| Jul 29, 2024 | OUT | C$238.05 | Jan 15, 2025 | +6.8% | ✕ wrong |
| Apr 5, 2024 | IN | C$212.03 | Jul 29, 2024 | +12.3% | ✓ right |
| Dec 1, 2023 | OUT | C$210.15 | Apr 5, 2024 | +0.9% | ✕ wrong |
| Aug 23, 2023 | IN | C$194.51 | Dec 1, 2023 | +8.0% | ✓ right |
| Jul 11, 2022 | OUT | C$160.34 | Aug 23, 2023 | +21.3% | ✕ wrong |
| Sep 21, 2021 | IN | C$229.79 | Jul 11, 2022 | −30.2% | ✕ wrong |
| Jun 16, 2021 | OUT | C$201.58 | Sep 21, 2021 | +14.0% | ✕ wrong |
| May 18, 2021 | IN | C$188.21 | Jun 16, 2021 | +7.1% | ✓ right |
| Feb 11, 2020 | OUT | C$141.31 | May 18, 2021 | +33.2% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 18 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.