Volume & money flow · daily rule · Industrials & materials
Money Flow Index on Ferrovial
FER with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of $10,000 since 2012
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding FER over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2012 | Hold, since 2012 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | −0.1% | +13.0% | +4.8% | +14.1% |
| Total return | −1% | +455% | +26% | +93% |
| Worst drawdown | −61.3% | −41.2% | −31.9% | −31.9% |
| Volatility | 21.6% | 32.7% | 24.1% | 31.3% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.03 | 0.48 | 0.16 | 0.46 |
| Time invested | 53% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 9.5 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 54 of 133 closed calls (41%). In calls averaged +0.7%; out calls saw FER move +3.1% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | FER moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 12, 2026 | IN | $66.52 | now | −24.0% | open |
| Dec 9, 2024 | OUT | $42.05 | Jan 12, 2026 | +58.2% | ✕ wrong |
| Aug 7, 2024 | IN | $37.75 | Dec 9, 2024 | +11.4% | ✓ right |
| May 10, 2024 | OUT | $35.72 | Aug 7, 2024 | +5.7% | ✕ wrong |
| May 1, 2024 | IN | $35.82 | May 10, 2024 | −0.3% | ✕ wrong |
| Feb 14, 2024 | OUT | $35.76 | May 1, 2024 | +0.2% | ✕ wrong |
| Feb 8, 2024 | IN | $36.63 | Feb 14, 2024 | −2.4% | ✕ wrong |
| Jan 19, 2024 | OUT | $36.20 | Feb 8, 2024 | +1.2% | ✕ wrong |
| Dec 11, 2023 | IN | $31.30 | Jan 19, 2024 | +15.6% | ✓ right |
| Nov 20, 2023 | OUT | $31.30 | Dec 11, 2023 | 0.0% | ✕ wrong |
| Nov 6, 2023 | IN | $30.96 | Nov 20, 2023 | +1.1% | ✓ right |
| Sep 29, 2023 | OUT | $28.51 | Nov 6, 2023 | +8.6% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 134 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.