Volume & money flow · daily rule · Industrials & materials
Money Flow Index on Element Fleet Management
EFN with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2012
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding EFN over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2012 | Hold, since 2012 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | −3.4% | +12.5% | −2.7% | +12.2% |
| Total return | −40% | +465% | −13% | +77% |
| Worst drawdown | −71.4% | −80.1% | −37.2% | −42.6% |
| Volatility | 22.0% | 33.5% | 11.6% | 24.5% |
| Sharpe ratio | −0.12 | 0.47 | −0.51 | 0.44 |
| Time invested | 28% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 2.7 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 18 of 39 closed calls (46%). In calls averaged −1.0%; out calls saw EFN move +16.7% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | EFN moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | IN | C$27.68 | now | −21.4% | open |
| Jun 29, 2026 | OUT | C$29.15 | Aug 19, 2026 | −5.0% | ✓ right |
| Dec 15, 2025 | IN | C$34.77 | Jun 29, 2026 | −16.2% | ✕ wrong |
| May 9, 2024 | OUT | C$21.82 | Dec 15, 2025 | +59.4% | ✕ wrong |
| Feb 14, 2024 | IN | C$21.40 | May 9, 2024 | +1.9% | ✓ right |
| Nov 23, 2023 | OUT | C$19.94 | Feb 14, 2024 | +7.3% | ✕ wrong |
| Sep 29, 2023 | IN | C$18.41 | Nov 23, 2023 | +8.3% | ✓ right |
| Jan 23, 2023 | OUT | C$18.04 | Sep 29, 2023 | +2.0% | ✕ wrong |
| Jan 3, 2023 | IN | C$17.17 | Jan 23, 2023 | +5.1% | ✓ right |
| Oct 28, 2021 | OUT | C$12.22 | Jan 3, 2023 | +40.5% | ✕ wrong |
| Sep 29, 2021 | IN | C$11.45 | Oct 28, 2021 | +6.7% | ✓ right |
| Jun 10, 2020 | OUT | C$8.93 | Sep 29, 2021 | +28.2% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 40 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.