Volume & money flow · daily rule · Real estate
Money Flow Index on Choice Properties REIT
CHP.UN with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2013
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding CHP.UN over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2013 | Hold, since 2013 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +8.3% | +8.5% | +10.6% | +5.4% |
| Total return | +184% | +193% | +65% | +30% |
| Worst drawdown | −20.2% | −28.8% | −20.2% | −21.3% |
| Volatility | 11.4% | 16.7% | 13.3% | 16.8% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.59 | 0.46 | 0.54 | 0.17 |
| Time invested | 51% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 2.7 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 26 of 36 closed calls (72%). In calls averaged +5.5%; out calls saw CHP.UN move +1.6% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | CHP.UN moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 9, 2026 | OUT | C$16.30 | now | −9.0% | open |
| Apr 30, 2026 | IN | C$14.76 | Jul 9, 2026 | +10.4% | ✓ right |
| Nov 3, 2025 | OUT | C$14.01 | Apr 30, 2026 | +5.4% | ✕ wrong |
| Sep 30, 2025 | IN | C$13.98 | Nov 3, 2025 | +0.2% | ✓ right |
| Sep 10, 2025 | OUT | C$14.36 | Sep 30, 2025 | −2.7% | ✓ right |
| Nov 18, 2024 | IN | C$12.48 | Sep 10, 2025 | +15.1% | ✓ right |
| Jan 12, 2024 | OUT | C$12.28 | Nov 18, 2024 | +1.6% | ✕ wrong |
| Aug 17, 2023 | IN | C$11.17 | Jan 12, 2024 | +10.0% | ✓ right |
| Aug 2, 2023 | OUT | C$11.58 | Aug 17, 2023 | −3.6% | ✓ right |
| Jun 13, 2023 | IN | C$11.19 | Aug 2, 2023 | +3.5% | ✓ right |
| Apr 27, 2023 | OUT | C$12.24 | Jun 13, 2023 | −8.6% | ✓ right |
| Feb 13, 2023 | IN | C$12.08 | Apr 27, 2023 | +1.3% | ✓ right |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 37 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.