Volume & money flow · daily rule · Consumer & retail
Money Flow Index on Alimentation Couche-Tard
ATD with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2005
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding ATD over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2005 | Hold, since 2005 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +7.7% | +17.1% | +5.0% | +11.6% |
| Total return | +401% | +2,989% | +28% | +72% |
| Worst drawdown | −52.0% | −63.4% | −19.7% | −22.2% |
| Volatility | 18.5% | 29.7% | 14.4% | 24.1% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.40 | 0.62 | 0.15 | 0.42 |
| Time invested | 40% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 3.0 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 36 of 66 closed calls (55%). In calls averaged +5.0%; out calls saw ATD move +8.5% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | ATD moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2026 | IN | C$79.78 | now | −1.4% | open |
| Jan 5, 2026 | OUT | C$74.12 | Sep 10, 2026 | +7.6% | ✕ wrong |
| Sep 9, 2024 | IN | C$76.10 | Jan 5, 2026 | −2.6% | ✕ wrong |
| Mar 30, 2022 | OUT | C$52.98 | Sep 9, 2024 | +43.7% | ✕ wrong |
| Jan 25, 2022 | IN | C$47.72 | Mar 30, 2022 | +11.0% | ✓ right |
| Nov 12, 2021 | OUT | C$48.09 | Jan 25, 2022 | −0.8% | ✓ right |
| Oct 13, 2021 | IN | C$45.59 | Nov 12, 2021 | +5.5% | ✓ right |
| Mar 18, 2021 | OUT | C$38.59 | Oct 13, 2021 | +18.1% | ✕ wrong |
| Jan 18, 2021 | IN | C$37.27 | Mar 18, 2021 | +3.6% | ✓ right |
| Dec 21, 2020 | OUT | C$42.55 | Jan 18, 2021 | −12.4% | ✓ right |
| Aug 27, 2020 | IN | C$42.57 | Dec 21, 2020 | 0.0% | ✕ wrong |
| May 22, 2020 | OUT | C$39.91 | Aug 27, 2020 | +6.6% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 67 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.