Volume & money flow · daily rule · Semiconductors
Money Flow Index on Arm Holdings
ARM with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of $10,000 since 2023
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding ARM over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2023 | Hold, since 2023 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +19.1% | +67.8% | +19.1% | +67.8% |
| Total return | +69% | +372% | +69% | +372% |
| Worst drawdown | −31.7% | −54.0% | −31.7% | −54.0% |
| Volatility | 33.3% | 77.5% | 33.3% | 77.5% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.56 | 0.98 | 0.56 | 0.98 |
| Time invested | 21% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 2.0 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 4 of 6 closed calls (67%). In calls averaged +15.3%; out calls saw ARM move +76.8% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | ARM moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | OUT | $306.34 | now | −16.6% | open |
| Jul 20, 2026 | IN | $269.61 | Sep 24, 2026 | +13.6% | ✓ right |
| Feb 23, 2026 | OUT | $123.78 | Jul 20, 2026 | +117.8% | ✕ wrong |
| Jan 2, 2026 | IN | $114.73 | Feb 23, 2026 | +7.9% | ✓ right |
| Jul 1, 2025 | OUT | $156.33 | Jan 2, 2026 | −26.6% | ✓ right |
| Mar 7, 2025 | IN | $125.55 | Jul 1, 2025 | +24.5% | ✓ right |
| Oct 5, 2023 | OUT | $52.51 | Mar 7, 2025 | +139.1% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 7 of 7 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.