Volume & money flow · daily rule · Software & devices
Money Flow Index on Autodesk
ADSK with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of $10,000 since 2005
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding ADSK over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2005 | Hold, since 2005 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +4.9% | +8.7% | +8.8% | −4.1% |
| Total return | +185% | +516% | +52% | −19% |
| Worst drawdown | −72.2% | −76.9% | −36.3% | −50.8% |
| Volatility | 27.7% | 37.9% | 26.3% | 36.3% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.25 | 0.36 | 0.31 | −0.04 |
| Time invested | 44% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 2.2 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 29 of 47 closed calls (62%). In calls averaged +5.8%; out calls saw ADSK move +7.0% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | ADSK moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2026 | IN | $235.68 | now | −2.2% | open |
| Mar 6, 2026 | OUT | $260.99 | Mar 30, 2026 | −9.7% | ✓ right |
| Nov 24, 2025 | IN | $289.85 | Mar 6, 2026 | −10.0% | ✕ wrong |
| May 15, 2025 | OUT | $295.78 | Nov 24, 2025 | −2.0% | ✓ right |
| Mar 14, 2025 | IN | $254.43 | May 15, 2025 | +16.3% | ✓ right |
| Jul 17, 2024 | OUT | $250.18 | Mar 14, 2025 | +1.7% | ✕ wrong |
| Apr 22, 2024 | IN | $217.13 | Jul 17, 2024 | +15.2% | ✓ right |
| Dec 19, 2023 | OUT | $238.16 | Apr 22, 2024 | −8.8% | ✓ right |
| Sep 29, 2023 | IN | $206.91 | Dec 19, 2023 | +15.1% | ✓ right |
| Aug 16, 2022 | OUT | $233.64 | Sep 29, 2023 | −11.4% | ✓ right |
| Jan 19, 2022 | IN | $254.35 | Aug 16, 2022 | −8.1% | ✕ wrong |
| Oct 27, 2021 | OUT | $308.51 | Jan 19, 2022 | −17.6% | ✓ right |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 48 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.