Volume & money flow · daily rule · Consumer & retail
Money Flow Index on Airbnb
ABNB with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of $10,000 since 2021
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding ABNB over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2021 | Hold, since 2021 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +8.9% | +1.9% | +9.3% | −0.9% |
| Total return | +63% | +12% | +55% | −5% |
| Worst drawdown | −56.5% | −62.0% | −55.8% | −60.2% |
| Volatility | 36.8% | 45.4% | 38.8% | 44.3% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.33 | 0.20 | 0.32 | 0.11 |
| Time invested | 68% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 2.3 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 9 of 13 closed calls (69%). In calls averaged +5.0%; out calls saw ABNB move −2.5% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | ABNB moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 13, 2026 | IN | $121.35 | now | +36.4% | open |
| Dec 26, 2025 | OUT | $136.82 | Feb 13, 2026 | −11.3% | ✓ right |
| Sep 16, 2025 | IN | $121.66 | Dec 26, 2025 | +12.5% | ✓ right |
| May 15, 2025 | OUT | $136.79 | Sep 16, 2025 | −11.1% | ✓ right |
| Mar 14, 2025 | IN | $122.86 | May 15, 2025 | +11.3% | ✓ right |
| Feb 18, 2025 | OUT | $160.60 | Mar 14, 2025 | −23.5% | ✓ right |
| Oct 5, 2023 | IN | $124.99 | Feb 18, 2025 | +28.5% | ✓ right |
| Sep 13, 2023 | OUT | $144.72 | Oct 5, 2023 | −13.6% | ✓ right |
| Aug 23, 2023 | IN | $128.13 | Sep 13, 2023 | +12.9% | ✓ right |
| Jan 30, 2023 | OUT | $109.48 | Aug 23, 2023 | +17.0% | ✕ wrong |
| Dec 7, 2021 | IN | $183.14 | Jan 30, 2023 | −40.2% | ✕ wrong |
| Aug 11, 2021 | OUT | $148.16 | Dec 7, 2021 | +23.6% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 14 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.