Creator of the Schaff Trend Cycle; founder of FX-Strategy

Doug Schaff

Doug Schaff is the founder and president of FX-Strategy, Inc. and a former senior FX trader at Bankers Trust (New York and Paris) and chief dealer at Merrill Lynch Bank, where he set up the currency-options desk. He has traded on his own account since 1987 and released the code of his Schaff Trend Cycle publicly in February 2008.

What they argue

Currency trends accelerate and decelerate in cycles, so running a MACD line through a double-smoothed stochastic spots trend turns earlier than a MACD crossover.
The low-risk entry is at a trend-cycle low inside an established trend, confirmed when price takes out the setup bar.

Sources

Doug Schaff, Releasing the Code to the Schaff Trend Cycle (2008, PDF)Doug Schaff, Catching Currency Moves with the Schaff Trend Cycle Indicator (2002, PDF)Brian Twomey, The Schaff Trend Cycle (PDF)

Summaries are Be The Puck's paraphrase of public material. Be The Puck has no affiliation with the people listed.

Books and papers

Getting Ready to Trade FX (with Terry Schaff)
The Forex Strategy Manual (with Terry Schaff)

The full reading list

Schaff Trend Cycle 25/75 setup and trigger

Rule and full record

Trend following · daily

A MACD line run twice through a stochastic, so it swings between 0 and 100 like a cycle. A turn up from below 25 sets up a buy; a turn down from above 75 sets up a sell.

Calls right37%73,492 closed calls on 377 stocks.

Beat buy and hold (Sharpe)49 of 375On raw return: 52 of 375.

In right now188 of 377As of the Oct 13, 2026 close.

Best risk-adjusted results against buy and hold:

ETHOUT BTCOUT POUIN SUPXIN EOSEOUT HOLOOUT GEHCIN WSCOUT SNDKOUT DXCMOUT WFGOUT CIGIOUT All 377 stocks →