Volume & money flow · daily rule · Financials
Money Flow Index on TMX Group
X with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2005
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding X over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2005 | Hold, since 2005 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +8.2% | +14.7% | +10.1% | +17.2% |
| Total return | +453% | +1,848% | +62% | +120% |
| Worst drawdown | −36.2% | −59.4% | −18.2% | −22.8% |
| Volatility | 13.7% | 24.8% | 13.4% | 19.5% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.51 | 0.60 | 0.51 | 0.72 |
| Time invested | 32% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 2.5 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 31 of 54 closed calls (57%). In calls averaged +6.0%; out calls saw X move +6.9% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | X moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 6, 2026 | OUT | C$54.76 | now | −2.8% | open |
| Sep 11, 2025 | IN | C$53.32 | May 6, 2026 | +2.7% | ✓ right |
| Jul 12, 2024 | OUT | C$38.91 | Sep 11, 2025 | +37.0% | ✕ wrong |
| Mar 25, 2024 | IN | C$33.69 | Jul 12, 2024 | +15.5% | ✓ right |
| Dec 20, 2023 | OUT | C$29.29 | Mar 25, 2024 | +15.0% | ✕ wrong |
| Jun 26, 2023 | IN | C$26.85 | Dec 20, 2023 | +9.1% | ✓ right |
| Mar 2, 2023 | OUT | C$25.21 | Jun 26, 2023 | +6.5% | ✕ wrong |
| Jun 29, 2022 | IN | C$24.04 | Mar 2, 2023 | +4.9% | ✓ right |
| Jun 3, 2022 | OUT | C$25.32 | Jun 29, 2022 | −5.1% | ✓ right |
| Mar 28, 2022 | IN | C$23.33 | Jun 3, 2022 | +8.5% | ✓ right |
| Aug 3, 2021 | OUT | C$24.29 | Mar 28, 2022 | −4.0% | ✓ right |
| Jul 9, 2021 | IN | C$23.14 | Aug 3, 2021 | +5.0% | ✓ right |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 55 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.