Volume & money flow · daily rule · Consumer & retail
Money Flow Index on George Weston
WN with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2005
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding WN over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2005 | Hold, since 2005 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +1.8% | +6.9% | +10.2% | +19.7% |
| Total return | +48% | +326% | +62% | +144% |
| Worst drawdown | −41.9% | −60.8% | −7.0% | −19.6% |
| Volatility | 13.1% | 20.2% | 7.3% | 19.0% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.07 | 0.34 | 0.85 | 0.84 |
| Time invested | 36% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 2.3 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 29 of 50 closed calls (58%). In calls averaged +1.1%; out calls saw WN move +7.0% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | WN moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | IN | C$98.23 | now | +4.9% | open |
| Nov 17, 2023 | OUT | C$52.53 | Aug 26, 2026 | +87.0% | ✕ wrong |
| Jun 20, 2023 | IN | C$48.82 | Nov 17, 2023 | +7.6% | ✓ right |
| Jul 12, 2022 | OUT | C$48.00 | Jun 20, 2023 | +1.7% | ✕ wrong |
| Jun 21, 2022 | IN | C$45.57 | Jul 12, 2022 | +5.3% | ✓ right |
| Mar 18, 2022 | OUT | C$48.33 | Jun 21, 2022 | −5.7% | ✓ right |
| Jan 25, 2022 | IN | C$41.48 | Mar 18, 2022 | +16.5% | ✓ right |
| Apr 9, 2021 | OUT | C$34.22 | Jan 25, 2022 | +21.2% | ✕ wrong |
| Oct 21, 2020 | IN | C$29.23 | Apr 9, 2021 | +17.1% | ✓ right |
| Sep 29, 2020 | OUT | C$29.86 | Oct 21, 2020 | −2.1% | ✓ right |
| Oct 31, 2019 | IN | C$31.25 | Sep 29, 2020 | −4.4% | ✕ wrong |
| Jan 16, 2019 | OUT | C$27.25 | Oct 31, 2019 | +14.7% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 51 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.