Volume & money flow · daily rule · Metals & mining
Money Flow Index on Torex Gold Resources
TXG with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2010
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding TXG over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2010 | Hold, since 2010 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +19.7% | +10.8% | +13.1% | +41.1% |
| Total return | +1,775% | +431% | +85% | +456% |
| Worst drawdown | −53.4% | −78.2% | −53.4% | −53.4% |
| Volatility | 41.1% | 59.7% | 35.7% | 50.8% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.60 | 0.44 | 0.42 | 0.86 |
| Time invested | 44% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 2.9 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 29 of 47 closed calls (62%). In calls averaged +13.7%; out calls saw TXG move +0.3% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | TXG moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2026 | IN | C$58.48 | now | +28.6% | open |
| Oct 22, 2024 | OUT | C$30.80 | Mar 25, 2026 | +89.8% | ✕ wrong |
| Aug 7, 2024 | IN | C$19.87 | Oct 22, 2024 | +55.0% | ✓ right |
| Mar 11, 2024 | OUT | C$17.23 | Aug 7, 2024 | +15.4% | ✕ wrong |
| Jun 29, 2023 | IN | C$18.09 | Mar 11, 2024 | −4.8% | ✕ wrong |
| Nov 28, 2022 | OUT | C$11.34 | Jun 29, 2023 | +59.5% | ✕ wrong |
| Dec 6, 2021 | IN | C$12.92 | Nov 28, 2022 | −12.2% | ✕ wrong |
| May 21, 2021 | OUT | C$17.92 | Dec 6, 2021 | −27.9% | ✓ right |
| Aug 26, 2020 | IN | C$19.95 | May 21, 2021 | −10.2% | ✕ wrong |
| Apr 30, 2020 | OUT | C$19.63 | Aug 26, 2020 | +1.7% | ✕ wrong |
| Mar 17, 2020 | IN | C$13.48 | Apr 30, 2020 | +45.6% | ✓ right |
| Aug 13, 2019 | OUT | C$18.58 | Mar 17, 2020 | −27.4% | ✓ right |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 48 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.