Volume & money flow · daily rule · Big tech
Money Flow Index on Tesla
TSLA with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of $10,000 since 2010
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding TSLA over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2010 | Hold, since 2010 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +22.6% | +41.2% | +33.2% | +6.8% |
| Total return | +2,597% | +26,702% | +317% | +39% |
| Worst drawdown | −48.5% | −73.6% | −48.5% | −73.6% |
| Volatility | 30.7% | 56.9% | 34.6% | 59.9% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.76 | 0.86 | 0.89 | 0.35 |
| Time invested | 36% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 2.2 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 24 of 35 closed calls (69%). In calls averaged +21.0%; out calls saw TSLA move +69.7% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | TSLA moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 2026 | IN | $311.21 | now | +20.6% | open |
| Jul 12, 2024 | OUT | $248.23 | Jul 31, 2026 | +25.4% | ✕ wrong |
| Aug 21, 2023 | IN | $231.28 | Jul 12, 2024 | +7.3% | ✓ right |
| May 31, 2023 | OUT | $203.93 | Aug 21, 2023 | +13.4% | ✕ wrong |
| Apr 25, 2023 | IN | $160.67 | May 31, 2023 | +26.9% | ✓ right |
| Feb 10, 2023 | OUT | $196.89 | Apr 25, 2023 | −18.4% | ✓ right |
| Jan 4, 2023 | IN | $113.64 | Feb 10, 2023 | +73.3% | ✓ right |
| Aug 2, 2022 | OUT | $300.59 | Jan 4, 2023 | −62.2% | ✓ right |
| May 13, 2022 | IN | $256.53 | Aug 2, 2022 | +17.2% | ✓ right |
| Apr 6, 2022 | OUT | $348.59 | May 13, 2022 | −26.4% | ✓ right |
| Dec 21, 2021 | IN | $312.84 | Apr 6, 2022 | +11.4% | ✓ right |
| Sep 10, 2021 | OUT | $245.42 | Dec 21, 2021 | +27.5% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 36 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.