Volume & money flow · daily rule · Media & telecom
Money Flow Index on Telesat
TSAT with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2021
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding TSAT over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2021 | Hold, since 2021 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +18.3% | +10.9% | +18.3% | +10.9% |
| Total return | +123% | +64% | +123% | +64% |
| Worst drawdown | −77.2% | −80.4% | −77.2% | −80.4% |
| Volatility | 56.3% | 81.1% | 56.3% | 81.1% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.50 | 0.46 | 0.50 | 0.46 |
| Time invested | 55% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 4.2 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 15 of 20 closed calls (75%). In calls averaged +15.2%; out calls saw TSAT move +1.3% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | TSAT moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 13, 2026 | OUT | C$73.04 | now | −10.8% | open |
| Jul 31, 2026 | IN | C$52.07 | Aug 13, 2026 | +40.3% | ✓ right |
| Dec 15, 2025 | OUT | C$41.34 | Jul 31, 2026 | +26.0% | ✕ wrong |
| Nov 19, 2025 | IN | C$35.21 | Dec 15, 2025 | +17.4% | ✓ right |
| Oct 17, 2025 | OUT | C$45.30 | Nov 19, 2025 | −22.3% | ✓ right |
| Aug 28, 2025 | IN | C$28.48 | Oct 17, 2025 | +59.1% | ✓ right |
| Jun 25, 2025 | OUT | C$31.99 | Aug 28, 2025 | −11.0% | ✓ right |
| Apr 8, 2025 | IN | C$24.36 | Jun 25, 2025 | +31.3% | ✓ right |
| Dec 18, 2024 | OUT | C$24.38 | Apr 8, 2025 | −0.1% | ✓ right |
| Nov 14, 2024 | IN | C$18.85 | Dec 18, 2024 | +29.3% | ✓ right |
| Sep 16, 2024 | OUT | C$14.00 | Nov 14, 2024 | +34.6% | ✕ wrong |
| Jun 25, 2024 | IN | C$10.63 | Sep 16, 2024 | +31.7% | ✓ right |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 21 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.