Volume & money flow · daily rule · Software & devices
Money Flow Index on Thomson Reuters (Toronto listing)
TRI.TO with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2008
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding TRI.TO over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2008 | Hold, since 2008 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +7.0% | +11.6% | +9.8% | +2.8% |
| Total return | +244% | +638% | +59% | +15% |
| Worst drawdown | −31.3% | −61.8% | −27.2% | −61.8% |
| Volatility | 15.1% | 24.2% | 22.7% | 28.7% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.43 | 0.52 | 0.36 | 0.11 |
| Time invested | 37% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 1.7 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 17 of 31 closed calls (55%). In calls averaged +6.3%; out calls saw TRI.TO move +8.9% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | TRI.TO moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 9, 2026 | IN | C$116.82 | now | +28.0% | open |
| Oct 27, 2025 | OUT | C$218.03 | Feb 9, 2026 | −46.4% | ✓ right |
| Aug 18, 2025 | IN | C$228.32 | Oct 27, 2025 | −4.5% | ✕ wrong |
| May 2, 2025 | OUT | C$242.72 | Aug 18, 2025 | −5.9% | ✓ right |
| Mar 24, 2025 | IN | C$234.21 | May 2, 2025 | +3.6% | ✓ right |
| Feb 4, 2025 | OUT | C$228.50 | Mar 24, 2025 | +2.5% | ✕ wrong |
| Jun 25, 2024 | IN | C$216.54 | Feb 4, 2025 | +5.5% | ✓ right |
| Jul 12, 2022 | OUT | C$125.64 | Jun 25, 2024 | +72.3% | ✕ wrong |
| Jan 26, 2022 | IN | C$120.59 | Jul 12, 2022 | +4.2% | ✓ right |
| Oct 26, 2021 | OUT | C$132.97 | Jan 26, 2022 | −9.3% | ✓ right |
| Oct 6, 2021 | IN | C$127.45 | Oct 26, 2021 | +4.3% | ✓ right |
| Jun 4, 2021 | OUT | C$107.37 | Oct 6, 2021 | +18.7% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 32 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.