Volume & money flow · daily rule · Energy & power
Money Flow Index on Topaz Energy
TPZ with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2020
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding TPZ over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2020 | Hold, since 2020 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +6.6% | +19.3% | +7.8% | +16.7% |
| Total return | +45% | +184% | +45% | +115% |
| Worst drawdown | −23.0% | −24.8% | −23.0% | −24.8% |
| Volatility | 10.8% | 23.8% | 11.7% | 24.0% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.35 | 0.73 | 0.38 | 0.60 |
| Time invested | 21% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 1.9 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 5 of 11 closed calls (45%). In calls averaged +5.4%; out calls saw TPZ move +15.1% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | TPZ moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | IN | C$29.17 | now | +1.6% | open |
| Nov 21, 2025 | OUT | C$26.38 | Sep 24, 2026 | +10.6% | ✕ wrong |
| Oct 27, 2025 | IN | C$23.73 | Nov 21, 2025 | +11.2% | ✓ right |
| Jun 20, 2025 | OUT | C$25.00 | Oct 27, 2025 | −5.1% | ✓ right |
| Dec 12, 2024 | IN | C$24.68 | Jun 20, 2025 | +1.3% | ✓ right |
| Apr 2, 2024 | OUT | C$19.77 | Dec 12, 2024 | +24.9% | ✕ wrong |
| Dec 13, 2023 | IN | C$15.91 | Apr 2, 2024 | +24.2% | ✓ right |
| Apr 5, 2023 | OUT | C$15.82 | Dec 13, 2023 | +0.6% | ✕ wrong |
| Dec 23, 2022 | IN | C$17.69 | Apr 5, 2023 | −10.6% | ✕ wrong |
| Jan 14, 2022 | OUT | C$14.28 | Dec 23, 2022 | +23.9% | ✕ wrong |
| Jan 4, 2022 | IN | C$14.18 | Jan 14, 2022 | +0.7% | ✓ right |
| Nov 10, 2020 | OUT | C$10.43 | Jan 4, 2022 | +36.0% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 12 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.