Mean reversion · daily rule · Industrials & materials
Mayer Multiple on SpaceX
What the play says
SPCX with the play, last two years
SPCX200-day SMA2.4 × the 200-day
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
The record
The play against buying and holding SPCX over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since – | Hold, since – | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | – | – | – | – |
| Total return | – | – | – | – |
| Worst drawdown | – | – | – | – |
| Volatility | – | – | – | – |
| Sharpe ratio | – | – | – | – |
| Time invested | – | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 0.0 | 0 |
How the play works
- In while the close is less than 2.4 times its 200-day average.
- Out when it reaches 2.4 or more.
Mayer used it to decide when to keep buying, not when to sell. Selling above 2.4 is Be The Puck's reading.
On ordinary stocks a price 2.4 times the 200-day is rare, so this is close to buy and hold.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.