Volume & money flow · daily rule · Healthcare
Money Flow Index on Regeneron
REGN with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of $10,000 since 2005
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding REGN over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2005 | Hold, since 2005 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +14.1% | +22.6% | +6.0% | +6.8% |
| Total return | +1,675% | +8,310% | +34% | +39% |
| Worst drawdown | −47.5% | −59.7% | −38.5% | −59.7% |
| Volatility | 25.9% | 43.9% | 21.4% | 31.1% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.57 | 0.64 | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| Time invested | 37% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 2.2 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 32 of 48 closed calls (67%). In calls averaged +13.4%; out calls saw REGN move +11.4% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | REGN moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 15, 2025 | OUT | $544.34 | now | +38.4% | open |
| Nov 25, 2024 | IN | $742.50 | Jul 15, 2025 | −26.7% | ✕ wrong |
| Jun 26, 2024 | OUT | $1,059.16 | Nov 25, 2024 | −29.9% | ✓ right |
| Apr 23, 2024 | IN | $898.84 | Jun 26, 2024 | +17.8% | ✓ right |
| Feb 2, 2023 | OUT | $744.18 | Apr 23, 2024 | +20.8% | ✕ wrong |
| May 12, 2022 | IN | $628.03 | Feb 2, 2023 | +18.5% | ✓ right |
| Nov 2, 2021 | OUT | $632.80 | May 12, 2022 | −0.8% | ✓ right |
| Oct 14, 2021 | IN | $550.43 | Nov 2, 2021 | +15.0% | ✓ right |
| Jun 22, 2021 | OUT | $529.03 | Oct 14, 2021 | +4.0% | ✕ wrong |
| Feb 24, 2021 | IN | $454.31 | Jun 22, 2021 | +16.4% | ✓ right |
| Feb 27, 2020 | OUT | $427.57 | Feb 24, 2021 | +6.3% | ✕ wrong |
| Feb 3, 2020 | IN | $337.93 | Feb 27, 2020 | +26.5% | ✓ right |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 49 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.