Volume & money flow · daily rule · Energy & power
Money Flow Index on PrairieSky Royalty
PSK with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2014
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding PSK over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2014 | Hold, since 2014 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +1.8% | +2.8% | +2.5% | +23.2% |
| Total return | +24% | +40% | +13% | +182% |
| Worst drawdown | −57.7% | −80.7% | −18.6% | −25.4% |
| Volatility | 24.5% | 32.8% | 11.3% | 25.3% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.11 | 0.19 | −0.06 | 0.80 |
| Time invested | 46% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 1.1 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 7 of 14 closed calls (50%). In calls averaged +2.9%; out calls saw PSK move +7.6% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | PSK moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2025 | OUT | C$24.86 | now | +40.6% | open |
| Jan 28, 2025 | IN | C$25.56 | Sep 29, 2025 | −2.8% | ✕ wrong |
| Jan 19, 2022 | OUT | C$12.27 | Jan 28, 2025 | +108.4% | ✕ wrong |
| Jul 20, 2021 | IN | C$11.35 | Jan 19, 2022 | +8.1% | ✓ right |
| May 13, 2021 | OUT | C$11.08 | Jul 20, 2021 | +2.4% | ✕ wrong |
| Dec 30, 2020 | IN | C$8.37 | May 13, 2021 | +32.4% | ✓ right |
| Aug 17, 2020 | OUT | C$7.86 | Dec 30, 2020 | +6.4% | ✕ wrong |
| Mar 13, 2020 | IN | C$6.39 | Aug 17, 2020 | +23.1% | ✓ right |
| Jan 2, 2020 | OUT | C$11.84 | Mar 13, 2020 | −46.1% | ✓ right |
| Nov 11, 2019 | IN | C$10.63 | Jan 2, 2020 | +11.4% | ✓ right |
| Apr 29, 2019 | OUT | C$14.81 | Nov 11, 2019 | −28.2% | ✓ right |
| Mar 21, 2017 | IN | C$19.88 | Apr 29, 2019 | −25.5% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 15 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.