Volume & money flow · daily rule · Real estate
Money Flow Index on Primaris REIT
What the play says
Latest reading: MFI 58.81
PMZ.UN with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2022
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding PMZ.UN over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2022 | Hold, since 2022 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +10.4% | +16.5% | +10.4% | +16.5% |
| Total return | +59% | +105% | +59% | +105% |
| Worst drawdown | −16.1% | −23.5% | −16.1% | −23.5% |
| Volatility | 13.1% | 20.8% | 13.1% | 20.8% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.51 | 0.64 | 0.51 | 0.64 |
| Time invested | 31% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 2.6 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 8 of 12 closed calls (67%). In calls averaged +6.0%; out calls saw PMZ.UN move +1.3% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | PMZ.UN moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2026 | OUT | C$16.23 | now | +33.8% | open |
| Oct 10, 2025 | IN | C$14.08 | Jan 20, 2026 | +15.2% | ✓ right |
| Jul 15, 2025 | OUT | C$14.17 | Oct 10, 2025 | −0.6% | ✓ right |
| Jun 20, 2025 | IN | C$13.66 | Jul 15, 2025 | +3.7% | ✓ right |
| Jul 18, 2024 | OUT | C$12.06 | Jun 20, 2025 | +13.3% | ✕ wrong |
| May 31, 2024 | IN | C$11.70 | Jul 18, 2024 | +3.0% | ✓ right |
| Dec 11, 2023 | OUT | C$11.34 | May 31, 2024 | +3.2% | ✕ wrong |
| May 12, 2023 | IN | C$10.67 | Dec 11, 2023 | +6.3% | ✓ right |
| Oct 18, 2022 | OUT | C$10.58 | May 12, 2023 | +0.8% | ✕ wrong |
| Sep 7, 2022 | IN | C$10.80 | Oct 18, 2022 | −2.0% | ✕ wrong |
| Aug 18, 2022 | OUT | C$11.48 | Sep 7, 2022 | −6.0% | ✓ right |
| May 3, 2022 | IN | C$10.49 | Aug 18, 2022 | +9.4% | ✓ right |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 13 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.