Volume & money flow · daily rule · Energy & power
Money Flow Index on Peyto Exploration & Development
PEY with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2005
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding PEY over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2005 | Hold, since 2005 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +0.2% | +6.9% | +17.5% | +30.7% |
| Total return | +4% | +325% | +123% | +279% |
| Worst drawdown | −95.9% | −96.6% | −31.6% | −40.8% |
| Volatility | 28.8% | 38.7% | 22.4% | 34.9% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.09 | 0.32 | 0.66 | 0.83 |
| Time invested | 48% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 2.1 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 27 of 46 closed calls (59%). In calls averaged +8.5%; out calls saw PEY move +10.4% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | PEY moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | OUT | C$23.48 | now | +6.5% | open |
| Jul 11, 2025 | IN | C$17.88 | Jan 29, 2026 | +31.3% | ✓ right |
| Jan 15, 2024 | OUT | C$11.07 | Jul 11, 2025 | +61.5% | ✕ wrong |
| Dec 20, 2023 | IN | C$9.87 | Jan 15, 2024 | +12.2% | ✓ right |
| Aug 18, 2023 | OUT | C$9.70 | Dec 20, 2023 | +1.8% | ✕ wrong |
| Jan 6, 2023 | IN | C$9.05 | Aug 18, 2023 | +7.2% | ✓ right |
| Nov 9, 2022 | OUT | C$9.00 | Jan 6, 2023 | +0.5% | ✕ wrong |
| Jul 4, 2022 | IN | C$8.98 | Nov 9, 2022 | +0.2% | ✓ right |
| Mar 3, 2022 | OUT | C$7.92 | Jul 4, 2022 | +13.5% | ✕ wrong |
| Dec 16, 2021 | IN | C$6.33 | Mar 3, 2022 | +25.1% | ✓ right |
| Oct 1, 2021 | OUT | C$6.87 | Dec 16, 2021 | −8.0% | ✓ right |
| Jul 26, 2021 | IN | C$5.13 | Oct 1, 2021 | +34.1% | ✓ right |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 47 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.