Volume & money flow · daily rule · Metals & mining
Money Flow Index on Pan American Silver
PAAS with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2005
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding PAAS over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2005 | Hold, since 2005 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +5.1% | +7.0% | +12.8% | +16.1% |
| Total return | +193% | +338% | +82% | +110% |
| Worst drawdown | −63.9% | −79.4% | −48.8% | −54.0% |
| Volatility | 29.0% | 48.9% | 34.3% | 47.0% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.26 | 0.35 | 0.41 | 0.47 |
| Time invested | 46% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 1.8 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 24 of 41 closed calls (59%). In calls averaged +7.2%; out calls saw PAAS move +9.7% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | PAAS moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2026 | IN | C$66.88 | now | −10.0% | open |
| Sep 25, 2025 | OUT | C$50.65 | Mar 23, 2026 | +32.0% | ✕ wrong |
| Aug 5, 2025 | IN | C$39.47 | Sep 25, 2025 | +28.3% | ✓ right |
| Jun 20, 2025 | OUT | C$38.66 | Aug 5, 2025 | +2.1% | ✕ wrong |
| Nov 13, 2024 | IN | C$29.23 | Jun 20, 2025 | +32.2% | ✓ right |
| Apr 16, 2024 | OUT | C$24.94 | Nov 13, 2024 | +17.2% | ✕ wrong |
| Jan 31, 2024 | IN | C$17.35 | Apr 16, 2024 | +43.8% | ✓ right |
| Jul 20, 2023 | OUT | C$20.09 | Jan 31, 2024 | −13.7% | ✓ right |
| May 31, 2023 | IN | C$19.45 | Jul 20, 2023 | +3.3% | ✓ right |
| Oct 7, 2022 | OUT | C$20.76 | May 31, 2023 | −6.3% | ✓ right |
| Jan 28, 2021 | IN | C$35.93 | Oct 7, 2022 | −42.2% | ✕ wrong |
| Jun 25, 2019 | OUT | C$15.33 | Jan 28, 2021 | +134.4% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 42 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.