Volume & money flow · daily rule · Micro caps
Money Flow Index on Ocean Power Technologies
OPTT with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of $10,000 since 2007
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding OPTT over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2007 | Hold, since 2007 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | −21.8% | −35.4% | −17.7% | −19.5% |
| Total return | −99% | −100% | −62% | −66% |
| Worst drawdown | −99.9% | −100.0% | −98.2% | −98.2% |
| Volatility | 1,445.1% | 1,447.6% | 2,842.9% | 2,844.1% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.48 | 0.49 | 0.95 | 0.96 |
| Time invested | 60% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 3.8 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 37 of 73 closed calls (51%). In calls averaged −6.5%; out calls saw OPTT move +11.8% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | OPTT moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 26, 2026 | IN | $0.250 | now | +188.0% | open |
| Jun 5, 2026 | OUT | $0.290 | Jun 26, 2026 | −13.8% | ✓ right |
| Feb 20, 2026 | IN | $0.420 | Jun 5, 2026 | −31.0% | ✕ wrong |
| Dec 12, 2025 | OUT | $0.420 | Feb 20, 2026 | 0.0% | ✕ wrong |
| Aug 14, 2025 | IN | $0.500 | Dec 12, 2025 | −16.0% | ✕ wrong |
| May 15, 2025 | OUT | $0.540 | Aug 14, 2025 | −7.4% | ✓ right |
| Feb 28, 2025 | IN | $0.600 | May 15, 2025 | −10.0% | ✕ wrong |
| Sep 17, 2024 | OUT | $0.190 | Feb 28, 2025 | +215.8% | ✕ wrong |
| Aug 19, 2024 | IN | $0.200 | Sep 17, 2024 | −5.0% | ✕ wrong |
| Jul 23, 2024 | OUT | $0.330 | Aug 19, 2024 | −39.4% | ✓ right |
| Jun 18, 2024 | IN | $0.130 | Jul 23, 2024 | +153.8% | ✓ right |
| May 29, 2024 | OUT | $0.190 | Jun 18, 2024 | −31.6% | ✓ right |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 74 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.