Volume & money flow · daily rule · Metals & mining
Money Flow Index on NGEx Minerals
NGEX with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2019
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding NGEX over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2019 | Hold, since 2019 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +42.4% | +73.8% | +33.4% | +92.6% |
| Total return | +1,111% | +4,836% | +320% | +2,512% |
| Worst drawdown | −55.4% | −66.7% | −55.4% | −66.7% |
| Volatility | 45.3% | 69.0% | 35.3% | 61.4% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.94 | 1.10 | 0.88 | 1.31 |
| Time invested | 31% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 3.3 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 18 of 23 closed calls (78%). In calls averaged +26.9%; out calls saw NGEX move +30.2% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | NGEX moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | IN | C$24.23 | now | −7.3% | open |
| Sep 3, 2024 | OUT | C$10.03 | Sep 16, 2026 | +141.6% | ✕ wrong |
| Jun 13, 2024 | IN | C$8.80 | Sep 3, 2024 | +14.0% | ✓ right |
| Nov 27, 2023 | OUT | C$6.90 | Jun 13, 2024 | +27.5% | ✕ wrong |
| Sep 14, 2023 | IN | C$5.80 | Nov 27, 2023 | +19.0% | ✓ right |
| Apr 25, 2023 | OUT | C$6.42 | Sep 14, 2023 | −9.7% | ✓ right |
| Feb 15, 2023 | IN | C$3.10 | Apr 25, 2023 | +107.1% | ✓ right |
| Jan 16, 2023 | OUT | C$3.45 | Feb 15, 2023 | −10.1% | ✓ right |
| Dec 28, 2022 | IN | C$2.95 | Jan 16, 2023 | +16.9% | ✓ right |
| Dec 2, 2022 | OUT | C$3.24 | Dec 28, 2022 | −9.0% | ✓ right |
| May 13, 2022 | IN | C$2.68 | Dec 2, 2022 | +20.9% | ✓ right |
| Sep 15, 2021 | OUT | C$0.730 | May 13, 2022 | +267.1% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 24 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.