Volume & money flow · daily rule · Metals & mining
Money Flow Index on Labrador Iron Ore Royalty
LIF with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2008
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding LIF over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2008 | Hold, since 2008 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | −1.7% | +7.7% | +1.4% | −3.1% |
| Total return | −27% | +280% | +7% | −14% |
| Worst drawdown | −71.8% | −76.5% | −30.5% | −46.5% |
| Volatility | 24.9% | 37.8% | 21.7% | 27.2% |
| Sharpe ratio | −0.00 | 0.35 | −0.00 | −0.12 |
| Time invested | 42% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 1.4 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 16 of 25 closed calls (64%). In calls averaged +0.5%; out calls saw LIF move +29.7% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | LIF moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2026 | IN | C$26.80 | now | −22.7% | open |
| May 6, 2025 | OUT | C$27.51 | Mar 23, 2026 | −2.6% | ✓ right |
| Oct 29, 2024 | IN | C$28.10 | May 6, 2025 | −2.1% | ✕ wrong |
| Sep 30, 2024 | OUT | C$28.74 | Oct 29, 2024 | −2.2% | ✓ right |
| Feb 23, 2023 | IN | C$27.48 | Sep 30, 2024 | +4.6% | ✓ right |
| Jan 18, 2023 | OUT | C$28.84 | Feb 23, 2023 | −4.7% | ✓ right |
| May 13, 2022 | IN | C$22.21 | Jan 18, 2023 | +29.8% | ✓ right |
| Dec 8, 2020 | OUT | C$17.72 | May 13, 2022 | +25.3% | ✕ wrong |
| Sep 9, 2020 | IN | C$15.56 | Dec 8, 2020 | +13.9% | ✓ right |
| Apr 24, 2020 | OUT | C$10.87 | Sep 9, 2020 | +43.2% | ✕ wrong |
| Aug 19, 2019 | IN | C$13.29 | Apr 24, 2020 | −18.2% | ✕ wrong |
| Aug 24, 2017 | OUT | C$7.73 | Aug 19, 2019 | +71.8% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 26 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.