Volume & money flow · daily rule · Consumer & retail
Money Flow Index on Loblaw
L with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2005
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding L over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2005 | Hold, since 2005 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +2.7% | +9.1% | +9.7% | +24.4% |
| Total return | +80% | +557% | +58% | +196% |
| Worst drawdown | −44.0% | −63.2% | −9.4% | −14.5% |
| Volatility | 12.0% | 19.8% | 9.3% | 19.2% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.14 | 0.45 | 0.63 | 1.04 |
| Time invested | 38% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 2.0 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 25 of 43 closed calls (58%). In calls averaged +2.1%; out calls saw L move +9.4% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | L moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2026 | IN | C$61.85 | now | +3.4% | open |
| Apr 8, 2025 | OUT | C$48.80 | Mar 6, 2026 | +26.7% | ✕ wrong |
| Jan 16, 2025 | IN | C$44.17 | Apr 8, 2025 | +10.5% | ✓ right |
| Feb 14, 2022 | OUT | C$23.79 | Jan 16, 2025 | +85.7% | ✕ wrong |
| Jan 26, 2022 | IN | C$22.59 | Feb 14, 2022 | +5.3% | ✓ right |
| Dec 23, 2021 | OUT | C$24.36 | Jan 26, 2022 | −7.2% | ✓ right |
| Sep 29, 2021 | IN | C$20.15 | Dec 23, 2021 | +20.9% | ✓ right |
| Mar 25, 2021 | OUT | C$15.98 | Sep 29, 2021 | +26.1% | ✕ wrong |
| Nov 2, 2020 | IN | C$15.29 | Mar 25, 2021 | +4.5% | ✓ right |
| Feb 11, 2020 | OUT | C$16.10 | Nov 2, 2020 | −5.0% | ✓ right |
| Oct 31, 2019 | IN | C$15.92 | Feb 11, 2020 | +1.2% | ✓ right |
| Nov 1, 2018 | OUT | C$11.66 | Oct 31, 2019 | +36.5% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 44 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.