Volume & money flow · daily rule · Metals & mining
Money Flow Index on K92 Mining
KNT with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2011
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding KNT over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2011 | Hold, since 2011 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +5.3% | +21.9% | +16.5% | +32.2% |
| Total return | +122% | +2,090% | +114% | +302% |
| Worst drawdown | −70.1% | −82.0% | −22.9% | −54.5% |
| Volatility | 41.9% | 59.3% | 23.9% | 49.4% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.28 | 0.59 | 0.60 | 0.73 |
| Time invested | 52% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 2.7 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 20 of 42 closed calls (48%). In calls averaged +6.4%; out calls saw KNT move +26.2% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | KNT moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | OUT | C$28.57 | now | −3.4% | open |
| Jun 8, 2026 | IN | C$22.80 | Aug 11, 2026 | +25.3% | ✓ right |
| Dec 6, 2024 | OUT | C$9.23 | Jun 8, 2026 | +147.0% | ✕ wrong |
| Aug 9, 2024 | IN | C$6.89 | Dec 6, 2024 | +34.0% | ✓ right |
| Dec 4, 2023 | OUT | C$6.00 | Aug 9, 2024 | +14.8% | ✕ wrong |
| Sep 20, 2023 | IN | C$6.12 | Dec 4, 2023 | −2.0% | ✕ wrong |
| Feb 18, 2022 | OUT | C$7.80 | Sep 20, 2023 | −21.5% | ✓ right |
| Dec 7, 2021 | IN | C$7.09 | Feb 18, 2022 | +10.0% | ✓ right |
| Oct 21, 2021 | OUT | C$6.98 | Dec 7, 2021 | +1.6% | ✕ wrong |
| Aug 24, 2021 | IN | C$7.25 | Oct 21, 2021 | −3.7% | ✕ wrong |
| Apr 26, 2021 | OUT | C$7.87 | Aug 24, 2021 | −7.9% | ✓ right |
| Sep 25, 2020 | IN | C$6.94 | Apr 26, 2021 | +13.4% | ✓ right |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 43 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.