Volume & money flow · daily rule · Metals & mining
Money Flow Index on Ivanhoe Mines
IVN with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2012
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding IVN over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2012 | Hold, since 2012 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +8.8% | +6.5% | −1.2% | +2.1% |
| Total return | +224% | +138% | −6% | +11% |
| Worst drawdown | −67.9% | −89.8% | −47.8% | −53.9% |
| Volatility | 38.4% | 56.8% | 29.1% | 52.3% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.36 | 0.36 | −0.03 | 0.23 |
| Time invested | 39% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 2.2 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 18 of 30 closed calls (60%). In calls averaged +14.2%; out calls saw IVN move +11.3% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | IVN moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2025 | IN | C$13.20 | now | −20.5% | open |
| Mar 25, 2025 | OUT | C$15.10 | Nov 10, 2025 | −12.6% | ✓ right |
| Jan 2, 2025 | IN | C$17.23 | Mar 25, 2025 | −12.4% | ✕ wrong |
| Aug 28, 2024 | OUT | C$17.93 | Jan 2, 2025 | −3.9% | ✓ right |
| Aug 8, 2024 | IN | C$15.29 | Aug 28, 2024 | +17.3% | ✓ right |
| Apr 20, 2021 | OUT | C$8.41 | Aug 8, 2024 | +81.8% | ✕ wrong |
| Mar 26, 2021 | IN | C$6.56 | Apr 20, 2021 | +28.2% | ✓ right |
| Jun 8, 2020 | OUT | C$3.67 | Mar 26, 2021 | +78.7% | ✕ wrong |
| Mar 13, 2020 | IN | C$2.57 | Jun 8, 2020 | +42.8% | ✓ right |
| Jun 24, 2019 | OUT | C$4.06 | Mar 13, 2020 | −36.7% | ✓ right |
| Dec 27, 2018 | IN | C$2.26 | Jun 24, 2019 | +79.6% | ✓ right |
| May 24, 2018 | OUT | C$3.11 | Dec 27, 2018 | −27.3% | ✓ right |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 31 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.