Volume & money flow · daily rule · Energy & power
Money Flow Index on International Petroleum
IPCO with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2017
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding IPCO over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2017 | Hold, since 2017 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +8.0% | +23.5% | +20.2% | +39.1% |
| Total return | +105% | +620% | +150% | +416% |
| Worst drawdown | −79.8% | −84.0% | −28.6% | −36.6% |
| Volatility | 33.6% | 49.2% | 20.3% | 40.9% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.32 | 0.62 | 0.82 | 0.92 |
| Time invested | 33% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 3.4 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 20 of 32 closed calls (62%). In calls averaged +6.6%; out calls saw IPCO move +12.6% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | IPCO moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2026 | OUT | C$33.14 | now | +12.7% | open |
| Sep 23, 2025 | IN | C$24.26 | Mar 9, 2026 | +36.6% | ✓ right |
| Dec 1, 2023 | OUT | C$15.17 | Sep 23, 2025 | +59.9% | ✕ wrong |
| Sep 26, 2023 | IN | C$12.72 | Dec 1, 2023 | +19.3% | ✓ right |
| Aug 31, 2023 | OUT | C$12.67 | Sep 26, 2023 | +0.4% | ✕ wrong |
| Jun 30, 2023 | IN | C$10.85 | Aug 31, 2023 | +16.8% | ✓ right |
| Mar 15, 2023 | OUT | C$13.41 | Jun 30, 2023 | −19.1% | ✓ right |
| Feb 10, 2023 | IN | C$12.71 | Mar 15, 2023 | +5.5% | ✓ right |
| Nov 9, 2022 | OUT | C$14.56 | Feb 10, 2023 | −12.7% | ✓ right |
| Aug 23, 2022 | IN | C$13.40 | Nov 9, 2022 | +8.7% | ✓ right |
| Sep 16, 2021 | OUT | C$6.04 | Aug 23, 2022 | +121.9% | ✕ wrong |
| Aug 24, 2021 | IN | C$5.33 | Sep 16, 2021 | +13.3% | ✓ right |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 33 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.