Volume & money flow · daily rule · Real estate
Money Flow Index on H&R REIT
HR.UN with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2005
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding HR.UN over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2005 | Hold, since 2005 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | −2.3% | +3.4% | +0.9% | −1.5% |
| Total return | −40% | +108% | +5% | −7% |
| Worst drawdown | −74.7% | −81.0% | −41.2% | −35.8% |
| Volatility | 23.1% | 27.8% | 17.7% | 23.3% |
| Sharpe ratio | −0.06 | 0.20 | −0.07 | −0.11 |
| Time invested | 39% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 1.7 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 18 of 36 closed calls (50%). In calls averaged −1.4%; out calls saw HR.UN move +10.4% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | HR.UN moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2, 2026 | OUT | C$11.10 | now | −12.0% | open |
| Nov 17, 2025 | IN | C$9.48 | Jul 2, 2026 | +17.1% | ✓ right |
| Sep 2, 2025 | OUT | C$11.31 | Nov 17, 2025 | −16.2% | ✓ right |
| Aug 7, 2025 | IN | C$10.93 | Sep 2, 2025 | +3.5% | ✓ right |
| May 15, 2025 | OUT | C$9.43 | Aug 7, 2025 | +15.8% | ✕ wrong |
| Nov 18, 2024 | IN | C$9.63 | May 15, 2025 | −2.0% | ✕ wrong |
| Jul 31, 2024 | OUT | C$9.03 | Nov 18, 2024 | +6.6% | ✕ wrong |
| Mar 29, 2023 | IN | C$10.51 | Jul 31, 2024 | −14.1% | ✕ wrong |
| Nov 1, 2022 | OUT | C$9.48 | Mar 29, 2023 | +10.9% | ✕ wrong |
| May 11, 2022 | IN | C$9.79 | Nov 1, 2022 | −3.1% | ✕ wrong |
| Feb 18, 2021 | OUT | C$8.31 | May 11, 2022 | +17.8% | ✕ wrong |
| Jan 12, 2021 | IN | C$7.97 | Feb 18, 2021 | +4.3% | ✓ right |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 37 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.