Volume & money flow · daily rule · Energy & power
Money Flow Index on Hydro One
H with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2015
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding H over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2015 | Hold, since 2015 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +7.1% | +12.3% | +12.0% | +14.7% |
| Total return | +110% | +250% | +76% | +98% |
| Worst drawdown | −17.1% | −27.7% | −13.6% | −17.1% |
| Volatility | 7.3% | 15.9% | 8.0% | 15.0% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.66 | 0.67 | 0.99 | 0.74 |
| Time invested | 29% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 2.1 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 11 of 23 closed calls (48%). In calls averaged +5.5%; out calls saw H move +6.1% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | H moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2026 | IN | C$50.71 | now | +3.0% | open |
| May 8, 2025 | OUT | C$50.60 | Sep 30, 2026 | +0.2% | ✕ wrong |
| Oct 8, 2024 | IN | C$41.68 | May 8, 2025 | +21.4% | ✓ right |
| May 17, 2024 | OUT | C$37.59 | Oct 8, 2024 | +10.9% | ✕ wrong |
| Apr 16, 2024 | IN | C$35.18 | May 17, 2024 | +6.9% | ✓ right |
| Mar 23, 2023 | OUT | C$33.33 | Apr 16, 2024 | +5.5% | ✕ wrong |
| Feb 14, 2023 | IN | C$32.57 | Mar 23, 2023 | +2.3% | ✓ right |
| Nov 4, 2022 | OUT | C$30.26 | Feb 14, 2023 | +7.6% | ✕ wrong |
| Jun 24, 2022 | IN | C$30.03 | Nov 4, 2022 | +0.8% | ✓ right |
| Apr 14, 2022 | OUT | C$30.53 | Jun 24, 2022 | −1.6% | ✓ right |
| Mar 1, 2022 | IN | C$27.39 | Apr 14, 2022 | +11.4% | ✓ right |
| Apr 6, 2021 | OUT | C$25.39 | Mar 1, 2022 | +7.9% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 24 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.