Volume & money flow · daily rule · Metals & mining
Money Flow Index on Eldorado Gold
ELD with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2005
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding ELD over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2005 | Hold, since 2005 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +8.4% | +5.3% | +22.7% | +33.2% |
| Total return | +481% | +205% | +177% | +316% |
| Worst drawdown | −71.8% | −96.7% | −37.5% | −55.0% |
| Volatility | 31.5% | 56.0% | 26.1% | 45.9% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.36 | 0.34 | 0.77 | 0.77 |
| Time invested | 38% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 1.9 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 24 of 41 closed calls (59%). In calls averaged +11.5%; out calls saw ELD move +5.6% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | ELD moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 31, 2026 | OUT | C$61.98 | now | −21.0% | open |
| Mar 24, 2026 | IN | C$45.47 | Aug 31, 2026 | +36.3% | ✓ right |
| Sep 16, 2025 | OUT | C$37.28 | Mar 24, 2026 | +22.0% | ✕ wrong |
| May 15, 2025 | IN | C$24.86 | Sep 16, 2025 | +50.0% | ✓ right |
| Apr 12, 2024 | OUT | C$20.73 | May 15, 2025 | +19.9% | ✕ wrong |
| Feb 15, 2024 | IN | C$14.77 | Apr 12, 2024 | +40.4% | ✓ right |
| Sep 19, 2023 | OUT | C$13.36 | Feb 15, 2024 | +10.6% | ✕ wrong |
| Aug 17, 2023 | IN | C$11.80 | Sep 19, 2023 | +13.1% | ✓ right |
| Jul 19, 2023 | OUT | C$14.87 | Aug 17, 2023 | −20.6% | ✓ right |
| May 26, 2023 | IN | C$13.78 | Jul 19, 2023 | +7.9% | ✓ right |
| Sep 23, 2022 | OUT | C$7.23 | May 26, 2023 | +90.6% | ✕ wrong |
| May 17, 2022 | IN | C$10.36 | Sep 23, 2022 | −30.2% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 42 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.