Volume & money flow · daily rule · Consumer & retail
Money Flow Index on BRP
DOO with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2013
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding DOO over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2013 | Hold, since 2013 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +12.5% | +9.4% | +6.0% | −7.7% |
| Total return | +377% | +228% | +34% | −33% |
| Worst drawdown | −51.5% | −73.6% | −35.4% | −62.5% |
| Volatility | 30.4% | 41.7% | 32.3% | 42.2% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.48 | 0.38 | 0.24 | −0.06 |
| Time invested | 35% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 2.9 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 25 of 38 closed calls (66%). In calls averaged +8.8%; out calls saw DOO move +2.0% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | DOO moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15, 2026 | OUT | C$69.42 | now | +7.6% | open |
| Mar 19, 2026 | IN | C$84.44 | Apr 15, 2026 | −17.8% | ✕ wrong |
| Dec 15, 2025 | OUT | C$104.85 | Mar 19, 2026 | −19.5% | ✓ right |
| Sep 30, 2025 | IN | C$83.74 | Dec 15, 2025 | +25.2% | ✓ right |
| Jun 25, 2025 | OUT | C$64.07 | Sep 30, 2025 | +30.7% | ✕ wrong |
| Feb 13, 2025 | IN | C$59.40 | Jun 25, 2025 | +7.9% | ✓ right |
| Apr 17, 2024 | OUT | C$93.22 | Feb 13, 2025 | −36.3% | ✓ right |
| Aug 29, 2023 | IN | C$105.19 | Apr 17, 2024 | −11.4% | ✕ wrong |
| Feb 10, 2023 | OUT | C$112.22 | Aug 29, 2023 | −6.3% | ✓ right |
| Jan 6, 2023 | IN | C$101.00 | Feb 10, 2023 | +11.1% | ✓ right |
| Dec 5, 2022 | OUT | C$99.24 | Jan 6, 2023 | +1.8% | ✕ wrong |
| Jun 20, 2022 | IN | C$79.76 | Dec 5, 2022 | +24.4% | ✓ right |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 39 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.