Volume & money flow · daily rule · Real estate
Money Flow Index on Dream Industrial REIT
DIR.UN with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2012
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding DIR.UN over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2012 | Hold, since 2012 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +1.9% | +7.8% | −0.2% | +0.3% |
| Total return | +31% | +184% | −1% | +2% |
| Worst drawdown | −28.9% | −51.0% | −28.9% | −37.7% |
| Volatility | 12.6% | 21.4% | 16.6% | 21.5% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.08 | 0.38 | −0.16 | −0.05 |
| Time invested | 39% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 1.7 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 14 of 23 closed calls (61%). In calls averaged +2.3%; out calls saw DIR.UN move +9.0% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | DIR.UN moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | IN | C$13.04 | now | −1.8% | open |
| Apr 30, 2025 | OUT | C$9.80 | Sep 11, 2026 | +33.0% | ✕ wrong |
| Oct 15, 2024 | IN | C$12.46 | Apr 30, 2025 | −21.3% | ✕ wrong |
| Sep 20, 2024 | OUT | C$12.87 | Oct 15, 2024 | −3.2% | ✓ right |
| Aug 9, 2024 | IN | C$11.52 | Sep 20, 2024 | +11.7% | ✓ right |
| Jul 19, 2024 | OUT | C$11.96 | Aug 9, 2024 | −3.7% | ✓ right |
| Aug 29, 2023 | IN | C$11.68 | Jul 19, 2024 | +2.4% | ✓ right |
| Aug 11, 2023 | OUT | C$11.89 | Aug 29, 2023 | −1.8% | ✓ right |
| May 12, 2023 | IN | C$11.61 | Aug 11, 2023 | +2.4% | ✓ right |
| Feb 6, 2023 | OUT | C$11.62 | May 12, 2023 | −0.1% | ✓ right |
| May 4, 2022 | IN | C$11.40 | Feb 6, 2023 | +1.9% | ✓ right |
| Jul 19, 2021 | OUT | C$11.88 | May 4, 2022 | −4.1% | ✓ right |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 24 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.