Volume & money flow · daily rule · Energy & power
Money Flow Index on Capital Power
CPX with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2009
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding CPX over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2009 | Hold, since 2009 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +5.1% | +13.0% | +4.3% | +13.4% |
| Total return | +132% | +697% | +23% | +87% |
| Worst drawdown | −20.1% | −47.4% | −20.1% | −33.8% |
| Volatility | 9.9% | 23.4% | 12.8% | 25.5% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.40 | 0.58 | 0.10 | 0.47 |
| Time invested | 27% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 1.7 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 19 of 29 closed calls (66%). In calls averaged +5.1%; out calls saw CPX move +12.1% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | CPX moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 17, 2026 | IN | C$61.00 | now | +2.6% | open |
| Mar 3, 2026 | OUT | C$60.72 | Sep 17, 2026 | +0.5% | ✕ wrong |
| Dec 3, 2025 | IN | C$58.74 | Mar 3, 2026 | +3.4% | ✓ right |
| Mar 4, 2024 | OUT | C$33.46 | Dec 3, 2025 | +75.6% | ✕ wrong |
| Jul 13, 2023 | IN | C$34.53 | Mar 4, 2024 | −3.1% | ✕ wrong |
| Apr 17, 2023 | OUT | C$36.35 | Jul 13, 2023 | −5.0% | ✓ right |
| Oct 17, 2022 | IN | C$35.42 | Apr 17, 2023 | +2.6% | ✓ right |
| Feb 14, 2022 | OUT | C$30.96 | Oct 17, 2022 | +14.4% | ✕ wrong |
| Dec 2, 2021 | IN | C$29.80 | Feb 14, 2022 | +3.9% | ✓ right |
| Apr 22, 2021 | OUT | C$28.81 | Dec 2, 2021 | +3.4% | ✕ wrong |
| Feb 24, 2021 | IN | C$26.26 | Apr 22, 2021 | +9.7% | ✓ right |
| Aug 14, 2018 | OUT | C$17.21 | Feb 24, 2021 | +52.6% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 30 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.